HISTORY _ SOUTH SEA BUBBLE

IS THIS COMING CRASH AS BIG AS THE SOUTH SEA BUBBLE BUST


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sea_Company

SOME PREDICTIONS

The Following are my predictions( though it is impossible to say how close i can get ) before 2014

1) USD index to hit 140 in a couple of years ( i think december it has made a primary turn)
2) DOW goes to 450 odd
3) GOld holds around 550 odd (Dow gold ratio is close here )
4) Crude goes below 10$
5) Silver hits close to 3 to 6 $ which will be amajor bottom

I think these some crazy predictions will review it when comes close.Just posted crude long term chart .

First it was Euro now it is the pound

The picture says it all Pound ready to crash. we have to see how far it goes but the writing is on the wall ...QE WILL NOT WORK

THE DECADE of high volatility

The decade of volatility is about to begin when there are high chances that every anlayst who is fundamental will 100% go mental why .Volatiltity can kill anyone one the wrong side .Except those who ow how to play it to their advantage. The liquidity thrown into the system will cause this .

THE GAME OF MONOPLY MONEY

Well people call this liquidity , some call it capital flows...external credit.Why this is such a huge problem is what people dont understand. Even if some plants a tree it takes time to grow.People should ask why is my stock moving up but they are always worried about it going down.The great Crash will even this out.

Now this also called carry trade.

Lets say u put 10$ of money into indian stock market....9$ is borrowed in USD so u pay 25 cents to this borrowed $ .
Now to this 9$ u add 1$ and invvestin indian mkts ...lets say u make a profit of 10%

so 10 $ becomes 11$ now pay back25 cents and u have 1.75$ so that is 75% profit ...

now thisis what is called hot money ...it doesnt care about fundamentals...though fundamentals are really mentals in a liquidity driven market....how can cheap money drive business or credit flows...

So this game will go on till people stop it .Iam afraid it will come with major panics...and people withdrawing cash out of banks .You break the trust of people they will break ur casino machine .

Going forward i expect another credit crunch which is atleast 10x times 2008 .It wont go away easily with another QE nonsense which they did .May be it is time for all fat cat bankers to learn farming .This will cause all those derivates and real estate implosion . Now the $ moves above 82 we will see how this money covers up their longs in asia and commodities..

GOld is a safety when it falls but it doesntmean people get into gold rush . there is a fair chance that gold is warning of what is coming .It will anyway after few year be real money and not toilet paper currency .

Why we are all screwd .not around the corner but may be couple of years

We have to look back in time for this as to what has happened in the last 100 years.How many times do we really do that.How many times we look for monetary collapse patterns in the roman times.Anyway we wont go that far but what really happened in the last 100 years is what is well look at .Bubbles bubbles bubbles everyone loves it.

Period of 1900 - 1932


1933 to 1950

War and recovering from that

1950 to 1980

Commodities speculation

1980 to 2000

Stock bull speculation

2000 to 2007

Real estate speculation


Now all the three are deflating ...the problem is people are trying to fix a broken system which will create more damage . The clock is ticking tic toc so people who are bullish need to be afraid than people who are bearish .Something has to give in US either devaluation of the dollor or equities and bonds meltdown for a fresh start ....

IS CHINA GOING TO DUMP US DEBT

IT is getting harder for governments to buy United States Treasuries because the US's shrinking current-account gap is reducing supply of dollars overseas, a Chinese central bank official said yesterday.

The comments by Zhu Min, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, referred to the overall situation globally, not specifically to China, the biggest foreign holder of US government bonds.

Chinese officials generally are very careful about commenting on the dollar and Treasuries, given that so much of its US$2.3 trillion reserves are tied to their value, and markets always watch any such comments closely for signs of any shift in how it manages its assets.

China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange reaffirmed this month that the dollar stands secure as the anchor of the currency reserves it manages, even as the country seeks to diversify its investments.

In a discussion on the global role of the dollar, Zhu told an academic audience that it was inevitable that the dollar would continue to fall in value because Washington continued to issue more Treasuries to finance its deficit spending.

He then addressed where demand for that debt would come from.

"The United States cannot force foreign governments to increase their holdings of Treasuries," Zhu said, according to an audio recording of his remarks. "Double the holdings? It is definitely impossible."

"The US current account deficit is falling as residents' savings increase, so its trade turnover is falling, which means the US is supplying fewer dollars to the rest of the world," he added. "The world does not have so much money to buy more US Treasuries."

China continues to see its foreign exchange reserves grow, albeit at a slower pace than in past years, due to a large trade surplus and inflows of foreign investment. They stood at US$2.3 trillion at the end of September.

IN this case the remaining $ will rise in value to say 2000 levels and will suck the liquidity out of the world economy.THE BOMB IS ticking and people who are bullish know a solution to the problems or are playing a fools game .