Why people dont sell and Buy in BEAR trend like they do Buy and sell in Bull trend

An important Q ? Do u like to buy and sell only or u look for short selling also...?

The human mind is a funny thing.People see the obvious way of making money BUY and then SELL .Not everyone can do the reverse.If you see a seller is always smart and alert when compared to a normal buyer.Most people who do the regular buying are somehow attached to
the company in some way.They think of something and buy and wont sell even when it is time to sell.This kinda behaviour is not seen with a seller.And sellers dont have time to sell and hold they know they have to make their logic look good .Take a case of Lnt why did it go up so much and why did go down so much if all those guys invested in that company are long term.How many people came out witha sell report when the bull market was on? now everyone wants to rush and sell.Really weird logic !!!If you look at normal business are built around perception and hope and loads of emotions.When the hope or the story is shaken it changes the emotion and the sentiment.The important things which drive the market are emotion and sentiment.

It took 5 years to build the bull mkt and it took 1 year to nuke that .A lot of so people talk about economy and numbers and crisis what not .Do people talk about how much they made or lost in this phase of so called bull bear fight?Lots of people who talk all this are on the buy side so where are the sellers? Sellers have a low profile always .Is it like the smart keep shut and the dumb make noise all the time.Seller is always like waiting for his move like a tiger waiting for his target
to strike at the right time unlike the buyer who jumps to buy in greed of making less in the move.Seller waits for the his turn to pound mercylessly.

BTW i wanted to ask you if your a short seller when do u short ? do you short when mkt is going down or short when all is good and green.We sell because we PANIC, which blinds us and we fail to comprehend that there is a limit down to where prices can go. We forget that markets always give another chance. We sell because we think that it is our last chance to exit and save the last paise we have left to salvage.

Have you ever wondered what is VALUE ?
The market doesnt see what is value and what is not it rises or gets pounded.Everyone says buy and hold.But seller never says sell and hold .There is a time to buy and selling at sometime completes the transaction.

so if you know how to sell you will know how to buy also.Dont listen to fools to tell you what to do so called analyst on CNBC. Make your own game plan and execute it.


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How Markets react to News is important than the real news

Every market is a combination of sentiment , knowledge,rumour and news .The engine runs till there is news flow.It is like a game of Poker where other person is trying to read your hand and bet against you or challenges you to call his bluff.Media plays an important role in in feeding you nonsense all the time.Are they paid to talk crap who knows but that is left to you to believe or not to believe .So sentiment fluctuates depending on the interpretation of this so called tips or information which actually never works with smart people who know what is going on(as ARISTOTLE SAYS majority opinion doesnt make anything true).So the sentiment is powerful mechanism which affects the price of anything.

Now how to interpret it ...may be technicals help but yea it can be manipulated.So how to seperate the noise ? not an easy thing to do.One really needs to have a not so famous indicator which is tried and tested or look for some clues which are weird .For example take gold everyone is bullish.Why it is obvious that gold is a safe haven.But do u buy it now .No you wait and you check at what price it will be a bargain and from there how much can u loose if your wrong and how much you can make if you right.

take a simple example if something is going up withought news one needs to find why it is going up.Coz someone knows somethign that others dont know.not a good idea to go short.But if something is going up with the news time to be alert coz someone is just wanted it to go up and may be making a you a big sukker(Best example was our own private bank which was in News for all the hidden reasons).NEVER follow what is obvious unless is it meaningless momentum position.


Another thing to watch is so called Targets...this is like everyones favourite buy this tgt so much or sell this tgt so much ...one should ask how does one know it will come to that target unless he is a trained person .absolute nonsense .The so called analyst give meaningless targets (one should ask them if they knew the target our they buying).Anyway when declaring a report on a particular stock analyst include a price target.Lot of guys think that if a stock has a target of say 100 and it is trading at 70 it is a bargain and shoudl be bought .WRONG logic.Money is not for free .Whatever analyst say is not gospel to be beileaved .SO next time you see a price target by some stupid analyst dont count on it coz he might be buying it before you and making a big sukker out of you.

Anyway just wanted to start something so i DID .... will write or post something whenever it is possible .

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Posting an article which i read recently
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How to React to the Bad Market News by Michael Swanson
One thing that stands out though is a lot of people news items. For instance going into last week I had someone email and ask about the earnings for airline stocks. They wanted to know if they should buy or sell because of the earnings. How to game the news so to speak. This is something I do not do at all. I don't base buying decisions based on news items and certainly not ahead of them. Usually if you react to a news item the news has already been priced in by the market so you are putting yourself way behind the curve. As far as trying to game the news I simply can't predict what an earnings report is going to be or what the economic news is going to be either. All I do is figure out what the trend is and try to ride that trend for as long as possible - and do my best to realize when it changes. If you watch CNBC or read the financial press though you get bombarded by news and opinions. It can prevent you from sticking with the trends by putting unnecessary fear into you. For instance a lot of attention is put on the employment numbers. Going into employment numbers the reporters will say the market is waiting on the numbers and if they are bad it might dump. They say something like that so you get scared to act. Then the news is bad and the market goes up anyway. The important thing is always the trend of the market. Not the news. News can be bad and the market can go up nonetheless. We are through the first big week of earnings reports from corporate American and over half of the companies that have reported so far have missed their earnings estimates. 50 of the 92 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported have missed, while many of these companies have refused to give earnings forecasts for the rest of the year. 56% of the companies that have reported have shown a drop in sales from a year ago. This is the sixth quarter in a row that earnings have shrunk - a run of quarters not seen since 1951. If that news isn't bad for you how about this. On Friday the government is going to release 4th quarter GDP numbers. They are expected to post a decline of 5.2%. That would be the worst quarter for the US economy since 1982. Well with all of this bad news you would think the stock market would be in total collapse, but it isn't. You see the market has already been dropping into all of this bad news. It fell over 10% from its January high in just the space of a few weeks. Last week the S&P 500 held the 800 level and bounced of it on Friday. Earlier this month I had been looking for the market to fall below this level and bottom nears its November lows - but last week's strength suggests that it might be bottoming right here. If that's the case then everyone who has been selling because the news is bad is going to be left behind when the next rally really gets going. It all has to do with the trend of the market. The easiest way to identify a trend is to see if the market is making higher highs and higher lows. If so then you have an uptrend in progress. Now if you have lower highs and lower lows in progress then you have a downtrend going. I talked about this last year in a video I put together about using this type of trend analysis to figure out where to place stop loss orders.

law of life: "Things are easier to get into than out of."













law of life: "Things are easier to get into than out of."

Trend Catcher

You got to know when to hold ‘emknow when to fold ‘emKnow when to walk away and know when to run.You never count your money when you’re sittin’ at the table.There’ll be time enough for countin’when the dealings done- Kenny Rogers, The Gamble


Volatility is greatest at turning points, diminishing as a new trend becomes established.---George Soros


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With this i start a new Post to a different dimension to trading .Share my experience of what i think about markets in general and give reasons .